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S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Home Prices Fall In November

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S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Home Prices Fall In NovemberU.S. home prices continued to fall in November according to S&P Case-Shiller’s month-to-month national and 20-city home price indices, but home price growth rates remained in positive territory year-over-year. The national home price index posted a  7.70 percent year-over-year home price growth rate as of November 2022.

20-city home price index posts 5th consecutive month-to-month decrease in November

The S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index for November reported that the top three cities for home price growth were Miami, Florida with a year-over-year home price growth rate of 18.4 percent; Tampa, Florida followed with a  year-over-year home price growth rate of 16.9 percent. Atlanta Georgia reported a  12.7 percent growth rate for year-over-year home prices.

Home prices tracked in the 20-city home price index rose at a 6.8 percent year-over-year- pace in November as compared to year-over-year home price growth of 8.6 percent posted in October 2022. 19 of 20 cities included in the S&P Case-Shiller  20-city home price index reported lower home prices in November; only Detroit Michigan reported a gain in month-to-month home price growth.

FHFA: prices drop for homes owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

In related news, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees government-sponsored mortgage enterprises  Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported that home prices for homes financed or owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac dropped by 0.10 percent month-to-month and rose by 8.2 percent year-over-year.

Nataliya Polkovnichenko, Ph.D. and Supervisory Economist in the FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics, said:  “ U.S. house prices were largely unchanged in the last four months and remained near the peak levels reached over the summer of 2022. While higher mortgage rates have suppressed demand for homes, low inventories of houses for sale have helped maintain relatively flat house prices.”

Changes in seasonally adjusted home price changes ranged across the nine Census Divisions from -1.1 percent in the Pacific Division to +0.5 percent in the West North Central Division.  Year-over-year home price gains ranged from  +2.4 percent in the Pacific Division to +12.0 percent in the South Atlantic Division.”

Data included in the FHFA House Price Index are gathered from reports on single-family home prices ranging from the 1970s to the present and include single-family home transactions in all 50 states and more than 400 U.S. cities.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – November 29, 2021

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - November 29, 2021Last week’s economic reporting included readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes, inflation, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims. President Biden announced his nomination of Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell for a second term.  Financial markets were closed Thursday and Friday for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Single-Family Home Sales Increase in October

The Commerce Department reported sales of new homes rose in October with 745,000 new homes sold on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. October sales fell short of the 800,000 new home sales expected by analysts but surpassed September’s reading of 742,000 new homes sold.

The National Association of Realtors® reported 6.34 million previously owned homes were sold on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis in October. Sales of previously-owned homes rose by 0.80 percent from September to October and exceeded expectations of 6.20 million sales and September’s reading of 6.29 million sales of previously-owned homes. Real estate pros said that high demand for homes and strong job growth contributed to October’s reading.

Slim inventories of homes for sale and rising home prices continued to sideline some buyers; competition with cash buyers also caused difficulties for would-be buyers who relied on mortgage loans. 6.34 million pre-owned homes were sold year-over-year in October and exceeded expectations of 6.20 million sales and September’s reading of 6.29 million pre-owned homes sold.

LawrenceYun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors®, said,  “Inflationary pressures such as fast rising rents and increasing consumer prices may have some prospective buyers seeking the protection of a fixed consistent mortgage payment.” Rapidly rising home prices challenged would-be home buyers as the median price for a single-family home rose to $353,900 in October, which was more than 13 percent higher year-over-year. The inventory of available homes equaled September’s inventory with a 2.40  month supply of homes for sale. Real estate pros typically consider a six-month supply of homes for sale as a sign of balanced markets.

Mortgage Rates Little Changed as Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported no change in the average rate of 3.10 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages; the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose three basis points to 2.42 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell two basis points to 2.47 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims fell to 199,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the expected reading of 260,000 new claims filed and the prior week’s reading of 270,000 first-time jobless claims filed. 2.05 million continuing jobless claims were filed as compared to 2.11 million ongoing claims filed in the prior week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from S&P Case-Shiller Housing Market Indices, along with reporting on pending home sales and construction spending. Public and private-sector job reports and the national unemployment rate will also be released along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 29, 2021

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - March 29, 2021Last week’s economic news included readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes along with final March index readings on consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Sales of New and Pre-Owned Homes Fall in February

Weather-related problems disrupted sales of new and previously-owned homes in February as low inventories of homes for sale further stalled sales. The National Association of Realtors® said that sales of new and pre-owned homes were slowed by persistent shortages of homes on the market.

Shortages of available homes were common before the pandemic and are more pronounced now. Realtor.com estimates that 200,000 homeowners stayed out of the market in the past year; this contributed to the two-month supply of homes available in February. Real estate professionals consider a six-month supply of homes for sale to indicate a balanced market. Sales of previously-owned homes were 9.10 percent higher in February 2020.

High demand for homes fueled competition among buyers and drove home prices higher. Rising mortgage rates, short supplies of homes, and rising home prices presented obstacles for first-time and moderate-income home buyers as the national median price for previously-owned homes reached $313,000.

New homes sold at a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 775,000 sales in February according to the Census Department and was 18.20 percent lower than the reading of 948,000 new home sales reported in January. The inventory of new homes available rose to a 4.80 month supply as buyers were sidelined by winter weather and rising mortgage rates. Analysts expect high demand for new homes to continue as buyers move out of crowded urban areas and seek larger homes that meet increasing needs for work-at-home space and up-to-date technology.

Mortgage Rates Rise as Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages jumped eight basis points to 3.17 percent; the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose five basis points to 2.45 percent and the average rate for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages rose five basis points to 2.84 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 0.20 percent.

New jobless claims fell to 684,000 claims from the prior week’s reading of 781,000 first-time jobless claims.  Ongoing claims were also lower with 3.87 million continuing claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 4.13 million continuing claims filed.

The University of Michigan reported an index reading of 89.1 for its Consumer Sentiment Index in March. February’s reading was 83.0 and analysts expected an index reading of 83.7.

What’s Ahead

This week’s economic reporting includes readings from Case-Shiller Home Price Index and reporting on pending home sales. Private and public sector job growth and the national unemployment rate will be released along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 22, 2021

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - March 22, 2021Last week’s economic reports included readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing markets and Commerce Department data on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Slips as Materials Costs Rise

The National Association of Home Builders reported that its Housing Market Index fell to an index reading of 82 in March as compared to February’s index reading of  84. Analysts forecasted a reading of 83. Builder concerns included rising materials costs and mortgage rates, which impact home pricing and affordability.  Robert Dietz, Chief Economist for NAHB, said that lumber prices have more than doubled since August 2020 and have added $24,000 to the cost of a home on average.

Regionally, builder confidence in housing markets declined in the Midwest, Northeast, and West but remained unchanged in the South.

Demand for new homes remained high as shortages of existing homes for sale persisted. Homebuilder sentiment was unchanged in the South but declined in the Northeast, Midwest, and Western regions of the U.S.

According to Commerce Department reports for February, housing starts declined to 1.42 million starts n a seasonally-adjusted annual basis as compared to January’s reading of 1.58 million housing starts. Building permits issued also reflected growing builder concerns as permits issued fell to 1.68 million permits issued from 1.89 million building permits issued in January.

Mortgage Rates Rise,  Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by four basis points to 3.09 percent; the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by two basis points to 2.40 percent. Mortgage rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.79 percent and rose by two basis points.

Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

770,000 first-time jobless claims were filed last week as compared to the prior week’s reading of 725,000 new jobless claims filed. Severe winter weather in Texas boosted new claims, which significantly exceeded analysts’ expectations of 700,000 new claims filed.

Continuing jobless claims fell to 4.12 million claims from the prior week’s reading of 4.14 million ongoing claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes, inflation and consumer sentiment.  Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – November 2, 2020

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - November 2, 2020Last week’s economic reporting included home price data from Case-Shiller Home Price Indices along with readings on pending home sales, new home sales, and consumer sentiment. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Case-Shiller: August Home Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in Two Years

Home prices rose at a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 5.70 percent in August according to Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index. U.S. home prices rose by 4.80 percent in July

The Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index showed 5.20 percent year-over-year home price growth in August.

Phoenix, Arizona, held first place in home price growth for the 15th consecutive month. Seattle, Washington followed with 8.50 percent year-over-year growth in home prices. San Diego, California reported 7.60 percent year-over-year growth in home prices.

New and Pending Home Sales Fall in September

New homes sold at a pace of 959,000 sales on a seasonally adjusted annual basis in September.  Analysts expected a sales pace of 1.033 million sales based on August’s pace of 994,000 sales. Sales fell with the end of the peak home-buying season and may have also slowed due to rising COVID-19 cases. Demand for homes has been high as buyers’ shifting priorities were expected to cause more families to relocate to less congested suburbs. Pending home sales fell by 2.20 percent in September according to the National Association of Realtors®. Signed sales contracts were 20.50 percent higher year over year.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported little change in average mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by one basis point to 2.81 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.32 percent and were one basis point higher than for the prior week. Mortgage rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages also rose by one basis point on average. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims fell last week to 751,000 new claims filed. Analysts expected 770,000 new claims filed based on the prior week’s reading of  791,000 new claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims also fell last week with 7.76 million ongoing claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 8.47 million continuing jobless claims filed.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to an index reading of 81.8 in October as compared to September’s reading of 80.4 and an expected index reading of 81.2.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include a statement and press conference by the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee. Construction spending data and labor sector readings on public and private sector jobs and the national unemployment rate will also be released along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 15, 2020

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - June 15, 2020Last week’s economic reporting included readings on inflation, the post-meeting statement from the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee, and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Inflation Ticks Up in May

May’s Consumer Price Index moved from April’s reading of -0.80 percent to -0.10 percent. The Core Consumer Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors, rose to -0.40 percent in May as compared to April’s reading of -0.40 percent. The Consumer Price Indices are used to calculate overall and core inflation rates. The Federal Reserve uses an annual inflation rate of 2.00 percent as an indicator for achieving price stabilization.

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve said in its post-meeting statement that the Fed would do all it can to ease the economic downturn caused by the Coronavirus and left the current federal funds rate of 0.00 to 0.25 percent unchanged. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indirectly encouraged legislators to approve funding for additional coronavirus relief.

Mortgage Rates Remain Stable as Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported little change in average mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by three basis points to 3.21 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.62 percent and were unchanged from the previous week. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was also unchanged at 3.10 percent. Average discount points rose to 0.90 percent and 0.80 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.40 percent.

Jobless claims remained far higher than pre-coronavirus levels but were lower last week than for the prior week. 1.54 million first-time jobless claims were filed as compared to 1.90 million claims filed the previous week. 29.50 million continuing jobless claims were filed last week as compared to the prior week’s reading of 30.20 million continuing unemployment claims.

The University of Michigan reported a higher index reading for consumer sentiment in May with a reading of 87.8 as compared to April’s index reading of 82.3.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index and Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and unemployment claims will also be released.