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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 16th, 2018

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 16th, 2018Last Week’s economic readings included reports on inflation, mortgage rates, new jobless claims and consumer sentiment.

Inflation Slows in June

The Consumer Price Index for June inched down to 0.10 percent growth in June as compared to May’s reading of 0.20 percent. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.20 percent, which matched expectations and May’s reading of 0.20 percent.

Year-over-year inflation rose by 2.90 percent. This was the highest rate of growth in six years. Inflation increased by a year-over-year rate of 1.60 percent in the prior year.

While inflationary growth signals strengthening economic conditions, it can also cause challenges for consumers if inflation outpaces wage growth. In recent years rapidly, rising home prices have outstripped inflation and wage growth.

Mortgage Rates Rise as New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week for the first time since June. Rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose one basis point to an average of 4.53 percent; The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose three basis points to 4.02 percent.

The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose 12 basis points to 3.86 percent. Discount points averaged 0.40 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 6/1 adjustable rate mortgages. Analysts said that global economic trends caused the 10-year Treasury yield to rise as investors moved away from stocks.

First-time jobless claims fell by 18,000 claims to 214,000 new claims filed; this approached the lowest level of new jobless claims in 49 years. Analysts said that current low levels of new claims showed the healthiest jobs markets since the dot com boom in the 1990s.

Fewer first-time jobless claims suggested that more workers are confident about quitting their current jobs for new jobs. Improved consumer confidence in job security could mean that more consumers will be ready to buy homes.

Consumer sentiment also dropped in July according to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.  Consumer sentiment fell to an index reading of 97.1 as compared to expectations of 98.9 and June’s reading of 98.2.  Concerns over recently imposed tariffs caused consumer sentiment to dip.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on retail sales, the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index and Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 9th, 2018

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 9th, 2018Last week’s economic releases included monthly readings on construction spending, public and private sector job growth and June’s national unemployment rate. Weekly readings included Freddie Mac mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

Construction Spending Rises in May

According to the Commerce, construction spending rose 0.40 percent in May; public sector construction spending rose 0.70 percent and private sector spending rose by 0.30 percent. Residential construction rose by o.80 percent, which analysts regarded as a good sign for the economy. Building more homes has long been identified as the only solution for persistent housing shortages that cause high demand for homes and rapidly rising home prices.

Analysts said that volatility and heavy revisions to government reporting, construction spending readings are subject to significant change. April’s reading of 1.90 percent growth was downwardly revised to 0.90 percent growth.

Mortgage Rates and New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week. Rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgages were three basis points lower at an average of 4.52 percent. 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.99 percent and were five basis points lower than for the previous week. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 3.74 percent and were 13 basis points lower than for the prior week.

First-time jobless claims fell last week to 231,000 new claims as compared to 200,000 new claims expected.and 244,000 new claims were filed in the prior week.

Unemployment ticks up as Public and Private Sector Job Growth Slows

ADP payrolls fell to 177,000 private sector jobs were added in June as compared to 189,000 jobs added in May. The Commerce Department reported 213,000 public and private sector jobs added in June, which beat expectations of 200,000 jobs added in June. 244,000 jobs were added in May.

The National unemployment grew to 4.0 percent in June as compared to May’s reading of 3.80 percent. Analysts attributed the rise in the unemployment rate to 600,000 new job seekers entering the market in June.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on inflation, core inflation and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 2nd, 2018

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 2nd, 2018Last week’s economic reports included readings from Case-Shiller housing market indices and data released on new and pending home sales. Weekly releases on mortgage rates and first-time unemployment claims along with the Consumer Sentiment Index for June were also posted.

Case-Shiller Reports Rapid Home Price Growth in April

April home prices ticked downward by one-tenth percent for the National Home Price Index, which reported 6.40 percent growth year-over-year. Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index also dipped by one-tenth percent to 6.60 percent year-over-year. Analysts note that home prices continue to outpace wage growth and inflation, which limits affordability for many prospective home buyers.

Seattle, Washington held the top spot on the 20-City Home Price Index with year-over-year home price growth of 13.10 percent; Las Vegas, Nevada followed with year-over-year home price growth of 12.70 percent and San Francisco, California reported home price growth of 10.90 percent year-over-year. New York, New York was the only metro area to report negative home price growth. Analysts said recent tax law changes and a glut of new apartments impacted home prices.

New Home Sales Rise as Pending Home Sales Fall

Sales of new homes rose in May to a seasonally-adjusted annual level of 689,000 sales. Analysts expected 668,000 sales based on April’s downwardly-revised reading of 646,000 new homes sold. Year-to-date, sales of new homes were 8.80 percent higher than for the same period in 2017.

Rapid home price growth has been driven by high demand and limited inventories of homes for sale. Supplies of new homes dipped from a 5.40-month supply in April to a 5.20-month supply of homes for sale. Real estate pros consider a six-month supply of homes an average inventory.

Pending home sales dipped in May by -0.50 percent,  as compared to April’s reading of -1.30 percent. Low supplies of available homes have sidelined buyers who haven’t found homes that they want or can afford. High demand has created bidding wars and cash buyers in some markets have sidelined moderate-income buyers and those who need financing to purchase homes.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week. Rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell by two basis points to 4.55 percent. Rates for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 4.04 percent and were unchanged from the prior week.

The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was four basis points higher at 3.87 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims rose to 227,000 first-time claims filed from the prior week’s reading of 218,000 claims filed. Analysts expected 220,000 initial jobless claims.

Consumer sentiment fell to an index reading of 98.20 in June as compared to May’s reading of 99.30. according to the University of Michigan.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on construction spending and minutes of the most recent meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee, Labor sector readings on Non-Farm payrolls, ADP payrolls and national unemployment will also be released.

Weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will be released on schedule.  U.S. Financial Markets will be closed on Wednesday in observance of Independence Day.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 25th, 2018

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 25th, 2018Last week’s economic reports included readings from the National Association of Home Builders, Commerce Department reports on housing starts and building permits issued. Sales of pre-owned homes were reported along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

Builder Confidence Slips as Trade Wars Boost Lumber Prices

According to the National Association of Home Builders, home builder confidence in current market conditions was down two points to 68 as compared to May’s index reading of 70. Analysts said that rising lumber prices impacted builder sentiment and have replaced labor costs as builders’ primary expense.

Increased building costs were cited as a concern for builders despite high demand for homes and limited homes for sale. Rising materials costs were attributed to trade wars caused by recent tariffs on lumber.

NAHB said that three components of the Home Builders Housing Market Index were also lower in June. Builder confidence in current market conditions slipped one point to an  index reading of 75; builder confidence in market conditions within the next six months also dropped one point to 76.

Builder confidence in buyer traffic in new housing developments dipped one point to 50. Any reading over 50 indicates more builders than fewer were confident about housing market conditions.

Housing Starts Hit 11-Year High in May

May housing starts surpassed April’s reading of 1.280 million starts on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. May’s reading of 1.350 million starts also surpassed expectations of 1.300 million starts. Higher volume and faster pace of building homes was good news for real estate and mortgage industry pros, as building more homes is the only way to relieve marked shortages of available homes in many areas.

Rising materials costs could dampen construction pace as tariffs and resulting trade wars increase. May’s reading for housing starts was the highest since 2007 and was 20.00 percent higher year-over-year.

Building permits issued in May were 4.60 percent lower than April’s reading. Building permits were issued at a pace of 1.301 million permits on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis.

Sales of Pre-Owned Homes Slip as Supply Tightens

Previously owned homes sold at a slower pace in May as short supplies of homes constrained already tight markets. The National Association of Realtors® reported 5.43 million sales on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Analysts expected a reading of 5.52 million sales based on April’s reading of 5.45 million sales. May sales of previously owned homes were three percent lower year-over-year.

Analysts said that there is little relief in sight and that there is a growing disparity in home sales; sales of homes worth $250,000 or more were up six percent, while sales of homes worth less than $250,000 fell by eight percent. Short supplies of homes for sale encouraged bidding wars and sidelined first-time and moderate-income buyers.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Lower

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week; the rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped five basis points to 4.57 percent; rates for a 15-year fixed mortgage were eight basis points lower at 4.04 percent and rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages were unchanged at an average of 3.83 percent.

Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for 30-year fixed rate mortgages, 0.40 percent for 15-year fixed rate mortgages and were 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims fell to 218,000 claims filed last week as compared to the prior week’s reading of 221,000 new claims filed and expectations of 220,000 new claims.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic releases include Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, new and pending home sales and weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 18th, 2018

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 18th, 2018Last week’s economic reports included the post-meeting statement by the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee along with readings on retail sales and inflation. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were also released.

Fed Raises Key Interest Rate on Strong Economic Indicators

The post-meeting announcement by the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve indicated that committee members voted to raise the target federal funds rate to 0.175 to 2.00 percent from the prior rate of 1.50 to 1.75 percent.

The post-meeting announcement cited strong economic conditions and stated that FOMC had altered their outlook from three rate increases in 2018 to four increases. This news is significant to consumers as banks and credit card companies typically raise lending rates in response to Federal Reserve actions.

Committee members were closely divided on interest rate forecasts for 2018. Eight members said that the Fed rate would likely increase four times in 2018 while seven members said three rate increases would be appropriate. The post-meeting statement also cited concerns over inflation and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that raising interest rates too fast could increase the risk of recession.

Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales Rise in May

The Consumer Price Index rose from 0.10 percent in April to 0.20 percent in May according to the Commerce Department. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and fuel sectors, was unchanged at 0.20 percent against expectations of 0.20 percent growth and 0.20 percent in April.

Retail sales rose 0.80 percent in May as compared to expectations of 0.40 percent growth and April’s growth rate of 0.40 percent. Retail sales excluding the automotive sector rose 0.90 percent in May; analysts expected a reading of 0.50 percent based on April’s reading of 0.40 percent growth.

Mortgage Rates Rise, New Jobless claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged eight basis points higher at 4.60 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose six basis points to 4.07 percent.

Rates for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage were nine basis points higher at 3.83 percent on average. Freddie Mac analysts said that demand for homes is holding steady despite higher mortgage rates.

First-time jobless claims fell by 4,000 new claims to 218,000 new claims filed. Analysts expected 225,000 new claims to be filed based on the prior week’s reading of 222,000 new jobless claims filed.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include NAHB Housing Market Indices, Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued and National Association of Realtors® reports on sales of previously-owned homes. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 11th, 2018

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 11th, 2018Last week’s economic reports included analyst assertions that U.S. housing markets are overvalued in over 50 percent of markets. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.

CoreLogic: Over Half of Top 50 U.S. Housing Markets Overvalued

Rapidly rising home prices are causing some U.S. markets to be overvalued, which means that home prices are higher than a community’s ability to sustain. What goes up must come down in such scenarios, but home prices continue to grow in many areas.

While Boston, Massachusetts and San Francisco, California continued to see rapidly rising home prices, analysts said that residents of the two cities had incomes sufficient to meet the cost of homes. Examples of cities where home prices were overvalued in April included os Angeles, California, Denver, Colorado and Washington, D.C. Supplies of available homes have fallen over the last three years.  Real estate pros and analysts continue to cite building more homes is the only solution to the shortage.

The National Association of Realtors® said that although supplies of new homes have increased in recent months, most newly built homes are priced for move-up buyers. Moderate-income and first-time buyers haven’t seen much improvement in available affordable homes. Rising mortgage rates in recent months also presented an obstacle to finding affordable homes.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week. Rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell two basis points to 4.54 percent; rates for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage were five basis points lower at an average rate of 4.01 percent. Rates for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 3.74 percent and were six basis points lower. Discount points for 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 0.50 percent; discount points for 15-year fixed rate mortgages and 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.40 percent.

First-time jobless claims fell last week despite predictions that they would rise. 222,000 new claims were filed as compared to expectations of 225,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 223,000 new claims.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic releases include the post-meeting statement from the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee, readings on consumer prices and retail sales. Mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.